There seems to be a direct correlation between me feeling a certain way about a band (which I won't go into here) and that band getting signed to a major label.

With that I mind, I predict the next "graduate" to a major after the Decembs will be Ted Leo.

right on, Ted Leo def makes sense on a major.

another band who does imo is Spoon, but i don't know if they have any interest whatsoever.

i don't think spoon will be joining a major anytime soon since they went through a messy divorce with elektra years ago. i don't remember the details, but my feeling was that spoon got shafted big time.

Ted Leo does not need a major. Fewer and fewer bands need a major, and they should be content -- if not thrilled -- to be on indies in this day and age. If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Ted would probably be locked out of mainstream radio, and his video play would be low. Majors do not give away MP3s (other than during a Sony BMG recall) so there would be no explicit file sharing to get the word out beyond his pre-existing fanbase. He would get a boost in retail marketing and maybe tour support, but those are recoupable expenses that will eventually come out of his pocket. Is he going to sell that many more albums on a major to merit all the additional expenses and headaches? Probably not.

Plus, an artist like him has a fairly wired fanbase, he can do good download sales on an indie. SubPop, for example, does very well at iTunes.

If he wants to roll the dice and shoot for a million in sales, then he should go to a major. But it's a longshot. Look at the Donnas. Tons of advertising, licensing and touring and they still don't have a gold record.

token remark - > "Well that's because The Donnas are horrifically bad."

Glenn, you do of course realize that I can take your entire paragraph, and replace "Ted Leo" with "The Decemberists"?

And yet...

I found this page through a Google search, and I just want to note (as if anyone else here in "the future" will read this comment) that Ted Leo signed with Touch & Go.